BREAKING NEWS: The NY Times is reporting that Manny Ramirez and David Ortiz are among those who failed the 2003 "anonymous" drug test.
Thursday, July 30, 2009
Sunday, July 26, 2009
Random Clicks: 7/26/09
Roaming the sidelines, and checking out some blogs ...Patriots/NFL
Patriotsblog.net has some thoughts on Willie McGinest returning to the Pats.
PatsPulpit lists 5 things to look for in training camp.
Red Sox/MLB
There's a quick rundown of some of the Remy Replacements over at at The Joy of Sox. I still like Eck the best, though.
Redsoxsuperfan.com has a nice little re-cap of the Adam LaRoche acquisition.
Saturday, July 11, 2009
Snatch-'em-Back Wins
On Friday's MLB Tonight's broadcast, the gang - I think I heard Matt Vasgersian and Mitch Williams in there, but I could be wrong - were talking about "snatch-'em-back wins," where one team pried victory from the jaws of defeat.
They trotted out two recent examples: the Orioles' 10-run comeback to beat the Red Sox, and the Marlins' football-score victory from July 9.
The team on MLB Tonight described snatch-'em-backs them as games you should have lost. That's good enough for them but woefully short on specifics for a guy like me. If the internet teaches us nothing else about baseball, it teaches us that virtually everything in a baseball game can be captured by a number.
So we turn this time to the marvelous FanGraphs Baseball, which will tell you exactly how improbable those victories were.* It uses a statistic called Win Expectancy (WE) which indicates how likely it is for the home team to win the game given every score, inning, baserunner, and outs situation.** And since the WE for any baseball game will always be between 0% (you lost) and 100% (you
won), it's extremely easy to compare any two baseball games.
*The Infinite Improbability Drive of Baseball, for those Douglas Adams fans out there.
**The basis of the work is an actual historical assessment of every game in which a particular situation (e.g., home team up 5-3 in the bottom of the 6th with a runner on second and one out) had occurred, but the method FanGraphs uses has some more math behind it.
So, those two games. Well, they're both very improbable, but the Orioles victory is far less so. The Marlins, at their lowest point - when Chris Young grounded out to score Justin Upton - were expected to win that game 1.4% of the time. The Orioles, at their lowest point - when Dustin Pedroia singled to score Jeff Bailey - were expected to win that game 0.4% of the time: 4 out of 1000 times!
Funny thing. Some people referred to this Orioles game as revenge for the Mother's Day Miracle. You know what: they're exactly right! The Red Sox's Win Expectancy for that game was also as low as 0.4%.
I still don't know what a snatch-'em-back win is, but spiritually it seems like it should be less frequent than a 1-in-100 shot, so sorry, Marlins, your July 9 effort doesn't cut it. But if the WE drops into the 0.x% range, I'll pay attention. By my own, arbitrary method of counting, only the Red Sox collapse counts as a snatch-'em-back win for the Orioles. Oh, that makes me feel much better.
A couple of other notable comebacks, WE-style:
They trotted out two recent examples: the Orioles' 10-run comeback to beat the Red Sox, and the Marlins' football-score victory from July 9.
The team on MLB Tonight described snatch-'em-backs them as games you should have lost. That's good enough for them but woefully short on specifics for a guy like me. If the internet teaches us nothing else about baseball, it teaches us that virtually everything in a baseball game can be captured by a number.
So we turn this time to the marvelous FanGraphs Baseball, which will tell you exactly how improbable those victories were.* It uses a statistic called Win Expectancy (WE) which indicates how likely it is for the home team to win the game given every score, inning, baserunner, and outs situation.** And since the WE for any baseball game will always be between 0% (you lost) and 100% (you
won), it's extremely easy to compare any two baseball games.
*The Infinite Improbability Drive of Baseball, for those Douglas Adams fans out there.
**The basis of the work is an actual historical assessment of every game in which a particular situation (e.g., home team up 5-3 in the bottom of the 6th with a runner on second and one out) had occurred, but the method FanGraphs uses has some more math behind it.
So, those two games. Well, they're both very improbable, but the Orioles victory is far less so. The Marlins, at their lowest point - when Chris Young grounded out to score Justin Upton - were expected to win that game 1.4% of the time. The Orioles, at their lowest point - when Dustin Pedroia singled to score Jeff Bailey - were expected to win that game 0.4% of the time: 4 out of 1000 times!
Funny thing. Some people referred to this Orioles game as revenge for the Mother's Day Miracle. You know what: they're exactly right! The Red Sox's Win Expectancy for that game was also as low as 0.4%.
I still don't know what a snatch-'em-back win is, but spiritually it seems like it should be less frequent than a 1-in-100 shot, so sorry, Marlins, your July 9 effort doesn't cut it. But if the WE drops into the 0.x% range, I'll pay attention. By my own, arbitrary method of counting, only the Red Sox collapse counts as a snatch-'em-back win for the Orioles. Oh, that makes me feel much better.
A couple of other notable comebacks, WE-style:
- 2008's Red Sox playoff comeback against the eventual AL champ Rays saw the Red Sox coming back from a 0.7% WE. (This one had the additional improbability of JD Drew showing some emotion on the field: a subtle bat-flip on his two-run homer in the 8th.)
- On opening day, 1998, the Sox stunned the Mariners on a Mo Vaughn grand slam in the ninth, thereby reversing a 0.4% WE.
- On Aug 5, 2001, the second biggest comeback my sleep-deprived brain can find occurs when the Mariners, in the midst of a 116-win season, blow a 14-2, 7th inning lead to the Indians, who win 15-14 in 11. The Indians' lowest win probability: 0.1%.
- August 21, 1990, the biggest comeback I can find: the Dodgers lead the Phillies 11-1 going into the 8th and 11-3 going into the 9th, both of which situations give them a 100% WE. Well, that must be rounded up to 100%, since the Dodgers lost 12-11.
Wednesday, July 8, 2009
Michael Vick and the Patriots … Why it Could Work
There has been quite a bit of speculation regarding the professional fate of Michael Vick … some of which focuses on the possibility that he might land with the Patriots. Now, there are obvious reasons why people would be against this, but let’s take a look at some of the reasons why this might be appealing.For the sake of this discussion, we can break it down as to how it would be a benefit or appeal to each of the following:
1. Robert Kraft
2. Bill Belichick
3. Michael Vick
4. The Fans
Robert Kraft
By all accounts, Mr. Kraft runs an organization that he can be proud to follow as a fan. He likes to bring in people who are good citizens, as well as good athletes. There have been times, such as with Christian Peter, when Kraft has taken measures to purge undesirables from the team.
With all of that said, I think Vick would make perfect sense. Here’s why …
He’s paid his dues. Say what you want about how brutal his crimes were, and make no mistake they were brutal, but the man did the time. The time in this case happened to be longer than some people have received for acts against other humans. What better way to show that you are an altruistic person, than to give someone a second chance? If a person takes responsibility for what he did, makes retribution, and shows a desire to make himself a better person, doesn’t he deserve that chance?
Moreover, Kraft could work with Vick to help him make amends. As a respected team owner, he could stand beside Vick and work with him to bring attention to various charities and organizations that would benefit man’s best friend.
Bill Belichick
Obviously, Vick would represent yet another offensive weapon. A lot’s been said about how Vick would be perfect in the Wildcat Offense, but let’s not forget that he once quarterbacked the Falcons to the NFC Championship Game.
This would be beneficial for two reasons:
1. If Brady were to get injured, the Patriots would have another option to fill in the QB spot.
2. Aside from the Wildcat, Vick could also come in at the end of games or in blow-outs to allow Brady to rest.
Belichick is not known to shy away from players with a checkered past (Dillon, Moss), as long as they show a willingness to buy-in to the team concept. With Vick looking for a way back into the league, there’s no reason to believe that he wouldn’t be a good soldier. If Vick did prove to be more trouble than he’s worth, he could be cut.
Michael Vick
He needs to get back into the league. Whether he deserved it or not (and again, I understand the viewpoint that he did indeed deserve it), he has lost everything as a result of his heinous actions. The road back to redemption has to start somewhere --- why not with a team that is widely considered to be one of the favorites to win it all this year?
There is also the chance that he could improve his image (and his karma) if he were to genuinely seek the guidance of Robert Kraft. If he proved himself to be a changed man, who wants to make good for the bad he’s done, then there wouldn’t be many better affiliations than one he could have with Kraft.
Beyond that, he’d get the chance to pass the ball to Randy Moss and Wes Welker ... and that’s not so bad.
The Fans
There’s no getting around the fact that this would be a polarizing event. There would be protests. There would be some very bad things said about the team. Then again, bad things have been said about the team since the Spygate incident. The Patriots are not a well-liked team beyond their fan base.
So, fans could embrace this. If people are going to think poorly of the team no matter what they do, then why not give Vick a chance? As evidenced by his years with Atlanta, he can be pure electricity on the field. It would be entertaining, and it would also give the Patriots one more weapon to use in taking down their opponents.
As a fan myself (and a dog owner), this is something that I could get behind --- provided Vick were to show legitimate remorse for his actions, coupled with a sincere effort to do some good with his life.
I’ve said it already, but I’ll say it again --- If a person takes responsibility for what he did, makes retribution, and shows a desire to make himself a better person, doesn’t he deserve that chance?
Tuesday, July 7, 2009
Pinch pitchers
Our young 2009 season has already seen a bunch of one of the weirder things you can see in a baseball game: the pinch pitcher, the position player who takes the mound to get a few outs while saving an actual pitcher from exerting himself. (I don’t know if anyone but me calls these guys pinch pitchers, but it’s short and it works for me.)
One example, sadly for me, was when Jonathan Van Every took the mound in relief of Javier Lopez in the Rays’ 13-0 beating of the Red Sox. In fact, Van Every and Lopez swapped positions; I can’t think of a time when I’ve seen a pinch-pitcher swap places with an ineffective reliever. Fate had it that when Van Every gave up a frozen rope, it was Lopez who had to chase it down. Other examples this season include Nick Swisher taking the mound to save the Yankees' bullpen in their 15-5 loss to the Rays, and Cody Ross doing the same favor for the Marlins’ staff in their 13-2 shellacking at the hands of the Phillies. Reds SS/3B Paul Janish has stumbled his way through two innings in two of the Reds’ more forgettable games.
*Going back a ways, Jose Canseco got out there and pitched, as did Wade Boggs, twice. In the beforetimes, Stan Musial pitched to one batter, Frank Baumholtz, who reached on an error; Stan the Man's lifetime pitching record is therefore 1 batter faced, 0 IP, 0 H, 0 R. Ty Cobb threw 5 innings with a combined 3.60 ERA.
While rare, this happens a little more often than I’d expect, and always under the same circumstances: the team is losing badly (almost always down by at least 10 runs) late in the game (almost always in the 7th inning or later). (If anyone knows of a winning team putting a scrub in there, please let me know. I’d also like to know if the winning team’s manager had all his teeth the next day.)
It seems to be favored by managers who have experience in the NL**. Tony LaRussa has used Aaron Miles a number of times in this role. Miles is normally a utility infielder, but he also pitched twice for the Cardinals in 2007, once in a 12-1 loss, once in an 18-1 loss. He pitched for them again in 2008, in a 20-2 loss. LaRussa used Scott Spiezio in the same capacity in a 14-3 loss in 2007. The Cardinals somehow have not used Rick Ankiel in this role, but I’d love to see it.
**Note that both Joe Girardi and Terry Francona managed in the NL East before the AL East.
I do think this is a strategy. The manager throws in the towel in an unwinnable situation to give himself a better chance of winning a future contested game.*** Major league pitchers, even long relievers, are scarce resources that should be used when they help influence the result. Thinking from another angle, using a pinch-pitcher adds some entertainment value to a game that was long ago decided.
***Thinking about it again, of course Tony LaRussa uses this strategy. He has to have six pitchers ready for every game.
What’s funny about these pitchers is that on the whole they’re pretty average. It’s a baseball truism that pitchers have the advantage the first time they face a batter, and these pinch pitchers will almost never face the same batter twice. Perhaps they also face the bench players from the winning side. Then again, opposing batters don’t want to face a pitcher they should demolish and might just swing away and get themselves out.
There are plenty of blowouts in baseball, so why doesn’t it happen more often? Well, it’s definite defeatism from the losing manager. Bringing in position players could be demoralizing for the actual pitchers on the team (“you’re not pitching any better that this guy who we pay to hit the ball”) and doing it too often could make the team seem like a joke that anyone can pitch for.
But I still think it makes sense every now and again. I’ll keep scanning the box scores for the blowouts and see if the managers thought enough to save an arm, add some levity, and make the game a little less painful all around.
One example, sadly for me, was when Jonathan Van Every took the mound in relief of Javier Lopez in the Rays’ 13-0 beating of the Red Sox. In fact, Van Every and Lopez swapped positions; I can’t think of a time when I’ve seen a pinch-pitcher swap places with an ineffective reliever. Fate had it that when Van Every gave up a frozen rope, it was Lopez who had to chase it down. Other examples this season include Nick Swisher taking the mound to save the Yankees' bullpen in their 15-5 loss to the Rays, and Cody Ross doing the same favor for the Marlins’ staff in their 13-2 shellacking at the hands of the Phillies. Reds SS/3B Paul Janish has stumbled his way through two innings in two of the Reds’ more forgettable games.
*Going back a ways, Jose Canseco got out there and pitched, as did Wade Boggs, twice. In the beforetimes, Stan Musial pitched to one batter, Frank Baumholtz, who reached on an error; Stan the Man's lifetime pitching record is therefore 1 batter faced, 0 IP, 0 H, 0 R. Ty Cobb threw 5 innings with a combined 3.60 ERA.
While rare, this happens a little more often than I’d expect, and always under the same circumstances: the team is losing badly (almost always down by at least 10 runs) late in the game (almost always in the 7th inning or later). (If anyone knows of a winning team putting a scrub in there, please let me know. I’d also like to know if the winning team’s manager had all his teeth the next day.)
It seems to be favored by managers who have experience in the NL**. Tony LaRussa has used Aaron Miles a number of times in this role. Miles is normally a utility infielder, but he also pitched twice for the Cardinals in 2007, once in a 12-1 loss, once in an 18-1 loss. He pitched for them again in 2008, in a 20-2 loss. LaRussa used Scott Spiezio in the same capacity in a 14-3 loss in 2007. The Cardinals somehow have not used Rick Ankiel in this role, but I’d love to see it.
**Note that both Joe Girardi and Terry Francona managed in the NL East before the AL East.
I do think this is a strategy. The manager throws in the towel in an unwinnable situation to give himself a better chance of winning a future contested game.*** Major league pitchers, even long relievers, are scarce resources that should be used when they help influence the result. Thinking from another angle, using a pinch-pitcher adds some entertainment value to a game that was long ago decided.
***Thinking about it again, of course Tony LaRussa uses this strategy. He has to have six pitchers ready for every game.
What’s funny about these pitchers is that on the whole they’re pretty average. It’s a baseball truism that pitchers have the advantage the first time they face a batter, and these pinch pitchers will almost never face the same batter twice. Perhaps they also face the bench players from the winning side. Then again, opposing batters don’t want to face a pitcher they should demolish and might just swing away and get themselves out.
There are plenty of blowouts in baseball, so why doesn’t it happen more often? Well, it’s definite defeatism from the losing manager. Bringing in position players could be demoralizing for the actual pitchers on the team (“you’re not pitching any better that this guy who we pay to hit the ball”) and doing it too often could make the team seem like a joke that anyone can pitch for.
But I still think it makes sense every now and again. I’ll keep scanning the box scores for the blowouts and see if the managers thought enough to save an arm, add some levity, and make the game a little less painful all around.
Monday, July 6, 2009
Sitting Targets
When I heard the news the other day regarding the on-field death of Cricket umpire Alcwyn Jenkins, I couldn't help but be reminded of the tragedy that befell minor league coach Mike Coolbaugh last year. Though there were differences in their roles on the field, and the way in which the incidents occurred, the common similarity is that neither one was actively participating in the play that struck them down.
No matter the sport (with the possible exception of basketball), players are equipped with gloves to help them deflect the ball, or padding/helmets to ease the force of a hit inflicted by another player. No such item exists for base coaches, or referees of contact sports like football. Even fans have a degree of separation from the field that gives them that extra second to react to a line-drive --- a luxury that does not exist for the coaches that stand beside first and third base.
I'm not sure what the answer to this is ... or even if there is one. These games have been played for many years, with only a handful of incidents. I'm just wondering if we're nearing the point where some sort of measure will need to be put in place to protect the people who manage and oversee the games. After all, it took a horrible event in Columbus, OH to initiate the raising of nets around hockey arenas for fan protection. As our athletes continue to get bigger, stronger, and faster, it seems that we may already have the need to step-up the protection of the non-playing participants on the field.
No matter the sport (with the possible exception of basketball), players are equipped with gloves to help them deflect the ball, or padding/helmets to ease the force of a hit inflicted by another player. No such item exists for base coaches, or referees of contact sports like football. Even fans have a degree of separation from the field that gives them that extra second to react to a line-drive --- a luxury that does not exist for the coaches that stand beside first and third base.
I'm not sure what the answer to this is ... or even if there is one. These games have been played for many years, with only a handful of incidents. I'm just wondering if we're nearing the point where some sort of measure will need to be put in place to protect the people who manage and oversee the games. After all, it took a horrible event in Columbus, OH to initiate the raising of nets around hockey arenas for fan protection. As our athletes continue to get bigger, stronger, and faster, it seems that we may already have the need to step-up the protection of the non-playing participants on the field.
Saturday, July 4, 2009
Steve McNair: 1973-2009
When I heard about the passing of Steve McNair today, I was beyond shocked. He was one of the victims in what appears to have been a double-homicide. Not many details are out at this time, but I suspect this is going to be near the front of the sports media news cycle for the foreseeable future ... especially as we head into the NFL's training camp. While he'll always be remembered for the Superbowl drive that came up just short, my interest in him as an athlete was first sparked by a cover story that appeared in Sports Illustrated during his college years. Rest in Peace.
Thursday, July 2, 2009
3 Up, 3 Down
Mowing 'em down while wondering how much wood I'd need to build an Ark ... 3 Sites to Visit on a Rainy Day
- The folks over at Baseball-Reference.com have put together a great site for statistics --- VERY easy to lose track of time over there.
- I've always been a big fan of Bill Simmons, and his page over at ESPN has a good variety of articles and podcasts.
- The SI Vault is a simply phenomenal resource of sports history.
3 Books to Read on a Rainy Day
- Moving the Chains: Tom Brady and the Pursuit of Everything offers a great way to start getting psyched about the MVP's return.
- In Instant Replay: The Greenbay Diary of Jerry Kramer, Kramer offers some fascinating insight into the early Packers teams. If you're a football fan, this is must read.
- Faithful: Two Diehard Boston Red Sox Fans Chronicle the Historic 2004 Season is a fun way to relive the year that the curse died. This book touches on every game that was played that season, and I'm still amazed that I have vivid memories of some of them.
3 Articles to Pass a Rainy Day
- I'm not a big soccer fan, but this excerpt from The Beckham Experiment really drew me in. It's hard to believe that its been two years since his much heralded arrival in LA.
- Jeff Pearlman over at SI.com asks a very obvious question regarding steroids --- and he's one of the few who have.
- Former Patriot Donte Stallworth's tragic accident, and the repercussions that he faces from the law and the NFL, are neatly laid out in this article by Mike Wilkening.
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